Author: M. Pear Hossain; Alvin Junus; Xiaolin Zhu; Pengfei Jia; Tzai-Hung Wen; Dirk Pfeiffer; Hsiang-Yu Yuan
Title: The effects of border control and quarantine measures on global spread of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_17
ID: lwe7whmg_26
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 13.20035261 doi: medRxiv preprint after we compared the trends of the top 10 visiting cities. 50% of the cities demonstrated rapid growth of the 147 numbers of infected cases once the numbers reached or near the threshold. We thus obtained the effective 148 reproductive number R j ini = 1.0905 to represent the transmissibility during the second wave of transmission 149 at l.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 13.20035261 doi: medRxiv preprint after we compared the trends of the top 10 visiting cities. 50% of the cities demonstrated rapid growth of the 147 numbers of infected cases once the numbers reached or near the threshold. We thus obtained the effective 148 reproductive number R j ini = 1.0905 to represent the transmissibility during the second wave of transmission 149 at location j. Note that this number represents the epidemic growth under control measures before community 150 spread. R j ini indicates the average number of transmissions that are generated from the secondary cases (Sec) 151 before the community spread. Because the nation-wide alert has already been received at different cities after 152 31 December, 2019, and many infectious disease control measures have been implemented, R j ini was 153 expected to be lower than R 0 . Given the R j ini number, we used the cumulative number of secondary cases 154 CI Sec at the location j to calculate the probability of outbreak emergence as p j,
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