Selected article for: "disease transmission and international license"
Author: M. Pear Hossain; Alvin Junus; Xiaolin Zhu; Pengfei Jia; Tzai-Hung Wen; Dirk Pfeiffer; Hsiang-Yu Yuan
Title: The effects of border control and quarantine measures on global spread of COVID-19
  • Document date: 2020_3_17
    • ID: lwe7whmg_55
    Snippet: Until recently, although some studies have been done to predict the spreading of this new disease using air and 281 other forms of transport information [6, 7, 27, 28, 29] , none of studies were designed to estimate the dynamics 282 of the imported and secondary cases. The benefit of stratifying the imported and secondary cases in a disease 283 transmission model is to provide a risk assessment of community spread. Because most of the imported ca.....
    Document: Until recently, although some studies have been done to predict the spreading of this new disease using air and 281 other forms of transport information [6, 7, 27, 28, 29] , none of studies were designed to estimate the dynamics 282 of the imported and secondary cases. The benefit of stratifying the imported and secondary cases in a disease 283 transmission model is to provide a risk assessment of community spread. Because most of the imported cases 284 can be detected more easily under 14 days quarantine from the passengers coming from the epidemic source 285 region, thus the risk of outbreak is not primarily linked to the number of the imported cases. However, 286 secondary cases, without travel history to the epidemic source region, are more difficult to be identified or 287 quarantined before disease onset and thus are more easily to become undetected cases in a community. infectious disease control [30] . A recent study has used a modeling approach to forecast the dynamics of 292 outbreak spreading [27] . We developed an "easy-to-use" mathematical formula that are able to have an 293 analytical solution of the first wave transmission (imported cases) and the second wave transmission (secondary 294 cases generated by the imported cases). With these numbers, we are able to evaluate the impact of border 295 18 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

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