The effect of control strategies that reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

Kiesha Prem; Yang Liu; Tim Russell; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Nicholas Davies; Mark Jit; Petra Klepac

We consider the following three scenarios: (1) theoretical: assume no change to social mixing patterns at all location types, no school term break and no Lunar New Year holidays; (2) no interventions, winter school break in Wuhan, and Lunar New Year holidays: assume no social distancing control measures, school-going individuals do not have any contacts at school because of school holidays from 15 th January-10 th February 2020 and 10% and later 75% of workforce will be working during the holidays from 25 th -31 st January 2020 and from 1 st -10 th February 2020, respectively; (3) intense control measures in Wuhan to contain the outbreak: assume school closure and about 10% of workforce-for example, healthcare personnel, police, other essential government staff-will be working even during the control measures (Fig 2 and Fig S4) . For the third scenario, we further modelled the impact of . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.