The end of the social confinement in Spain and the COVID-19 re-emergence risk

Leonardo Lopez; Xavier Rodo

In the case of the sudden de-confinement of 30% of the population showed in Figure 1 , it is observed how this involves the uninterrupted growth of the current wave and its continuity and amplification until the end of May. This means exceeding 400, 000 active cases at that date for all of Spain. On the contrary, the model shows how the maintenance of the confinement for 15 more days (April 29), involves the drastic limitation of the current epidemic peak to around 100, 000 active cases, as well as the generation of a second wave of cases peaking around mid-September. It should be noted that this second peak is delayed until 2021 when total confinement is extended to 60 days (May 14). A reduction in the number of deaths between the 30-day and 60-day scenarios to approximately half can be also seen in the central panel.