Selected article for: "current outbreak and second outbreak"
Author: Leonardo Lopez; Xavier Rodo
Title: The end of the social confinement in Spain and the COVID-19 re-emergence risk
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: 93bayn42_12
    Snippet: If the reincorporation of confined population is carried out at a lower rate (30% higher than confinement rate), the best result is obtained. However, it should be emphasized that this progressive reincorporation would be more optimal -in terms of a lower burden of disease-if carried out not at 30 days since confinement but at least at 45 days. This can be seen in the left panel of Figure 4 , where a second epidemic peak is not observed during th.....
    Document: If the reincorporation of confined population is carried out at a lower rate (30% higher than confinement rate), the best result is obtained. However, it should be emphasized that this progressive reincorporation would be more optimal -in terms of a lower burden of disease-if carried out not at 30 days since confinement but at least at 45 days. This can be seen in the left panel of Figure 4 , where a second epidemic peak is not observed during the remaining of 2020. Therefore, it would be possible to bring under control the current outbreak in satisfactory conditions, avoiding the appearance of a second wave of cases of Covid-19 during 2020. The most substantial difference therefore occurs based on the time at which the progressive reincorporation of the confined population is allowed. This results in a reduction from 250, 000 active cases to about 100, 000 active cases, if the start of progressive de-confinement is delayed from April 14 to April 29.

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