Author: Knut M. Wittkowski
Title: The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: 2ytec133_70
Snippet: During the 2003 SARS epidemic the number of new cases peaked about three weeks after the initial increase of cases was noticed and then declined by 90% within a month. Table 1 shows the relevant timepoints for the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic. The SARS-C0V-2 data also suggest that it takes at least a month from the first case entering the country (typically followed by others) for the epidemic to be detected, about three weeks for the number of cases t.....
Document: During the 2003 SARS epidemic the number of new cases peaked about three weeks after the initial increase of cases was noticed and then declined by 90% within a month. Table 1 shows the relevant timepoints for the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic. The SARS-C0V-2 data also suggest that it takes at least a month from the first case entering the country (typically followed by others) for the epidemic to be detected, about three weeks for the number of cases to peak and a month for the epidemic to "resolve". This data is consistent with the results from the SIR model (see Epidemiological Models).
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