Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide

Houssein H. Ayoub; Hiam Chemaitelly; Shaheen Seedat; Ghina R. Mumtaz; Monia Makhoul; Laith J Abu-Raddad

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 13.20059253 doi: medRxiv preprint CONCLUSION Age appears to be a driver of variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide. Countries with sizable adult and/or elderly populations and smaller children populations may experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions, necessitating disruptive social distancing measures to contain the epidemic. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts may experience smaller and slower epidemics and may require less disruptive social distancing measures to contain the epidemic. These predictions, however, should not lead to complacency, and should not affect national response in strengthening preparedness plans and in implementing prevention interventions. Once established, and even if smaller in scale due to their predominantly younger population, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic would still cause a heavy toll on developing countries with resource-poor healthcare infrastructure.