The Impact of Host-Based Early Warning on Disease Outbreaks

Mark Hernandez; Lauren E Milechin; Shakti K Davis; Rich DeLaura; Kajal T Claypool; Albert Swiston

In the course of an infectious disease outbreak, most individuals tend to self-monitor for symptoms of the pathogen. If individuals start to develop symptoms, they can self-report to a medical facility and may be immediately isolated until they recover. A new compartment, isoLated (L), was added to the SEIR model to reflect this symptomatic and infectious population, which has limited contact with the rest of the population and therefore reduced transmission potential ( Figure 3 ). The self-reporting probability θ is defined as the proportion of symptomatic individuals who are compliant in reporting their symptoms and enter the L compartment. The self-reporting rate α is derived from the delay between developing symptoms and self-reporting (i.e., the inverse of the average time delay). For our model, we assumed that isolation is 100 percent effective in preventing transmission, and individuals in the L compartment are unable to All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.