The Impact of Host-Based Early Warning on Disease Outbreaks

Mark Hernandez; Lauren E Milechin; Shakti K Davis; Rich DeLaura; Kajal T Claypool; Albert Swiston

Susceptible individuals enter the exposed compartment at a rate of 0 , which is known as the normalized transmission rate. The parameter is the contact rate, which accounts for how often susceptible-infectious contacts result in a susceptible individual becoming exposed to the pathogen. Exposed individuals become infectious at a rate of , which is the inverse of the incubation period. Infectious individuals stay infectious at a rate of (the inverse of the infectious period) until they recover or die. We define the recovery rate, ρ as (1-f) γ where the case fatality rate f is the proportion of infected individuals who die from the disease. Note that we do not specify a mortality compartment in this analysis, though for some pathogens spread through the handling of remains (such as Ebola during the 2014 West Africa outbreak), this compartment would be a critical addition. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.