The Impact of School Closure for COVID-19 on the US Healthcare Workforce and the Net Mortality Effects

Jude Bayham; Eli P Fenichel

Minimizing the impact of the COVID-19 and saving lives requires clear thinking and weighing tradeoffs. There will likely be cases when closing schools is sensible. However, policymakers and the healthcare experts advising them need to understand that closing schools may have severe knock-on effects on the healthcare system and that there is substantial uncertainty about the effectiveness of school closures for preventing infection beyond school children and on the impact of reduction in the healthcare workforce on patient survival. In the United States, the healthcare system appears disproportionately exposed to school closure induced labor shortages, and the segment of that system that provides infection control in nursing homes even more so. Such potential healthcare workforce labor shortages should be a first-order consideration when considering the potential benefits and costs of school closures.