The impacts of diagnostic capability and prevention measures on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan

Jingbo LIANG; Hsiang-Yu Yuan

Our estimation of R t during the curve up period aligns with other recent studies 24 (3.11 by Jonathan et al. 6 , 3.15 by Tian et al. 8 , 1.4 to 3.9 by Li et al. 1 ). Furthermore, our results showed both transportation restriction and quarantine measures were able to limit virus transmission. Transportation restrictions, including halting all forms of public transportation, trains, and air travel, sharply reduced social contacts and virus transmission rates. Concurrent with the implementation of transportation measures, personal awareness of the virus and protective behavior (e.g., wearing facemasks, washing hands frequently, social distancing) also increased. Although our study did not exclude the effects caused by changes in public response coming along with the transportation measures, we found R e dropped by 87% after the introduction of transportation restriction. These findings are in agreement with the results of Kucharski et al. 7 and Ruiyun et al. 16 . Besides, quarantine of the symptomatic infections was also essential in curbing the epidemic 25 . Under the actual condition in Wuhan (with quarantine), the estimated time from symptom to quarantine was around 5.65 days at the initial stage, possibly due to a lack of sufficient resources during this period.