Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation

Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu

We obtained the data of laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCov cases in Shaanxi province from the "National Health Commission" of the People's Republic of China and the "Health Commission" of the Shaanxi Province [7, 13] . It is worth mentioning that very detailed data information for each confirmed case has been released. This strict contact tracing strategy gave detailed information of illness onset, the first medical visit, quarantined period and confirmation. Then the data do not only include numbers, such as the number of newly reported cases, the cumulative number of reported confirmed cases, the cumulative number of cured cases and the number of death cases, and the cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases (shown in Figure 1(A) ), but also include the information such as the dates of illness onset, first medical visit, isolation, laboratory confirmation and discharge, and/or date of coming into Shaanxi (for imported cases). The data were released and analyzed anonymously.