Selected article for: "confidence interval and SEIR model"

Author: Fabiana Ganem; Fabio Macedo Mendes; Silvano Barbosa Oliveira; Victor Bertolo Gomes Porto; Wildo Araujo; Helder Nakaya; Fredi A Diaz-Quijano; Julio Croda
Title: The impact of early social distancing at COVID-19 Outbreak in the largest Metropolitan Area of Brazil.
  • Document date: 2020_4_8
  • ID: 9bi6pobg_12
    Snippet: Underreporting and lack of confirmatory tests for COVID19 could directly affect these R(t) estimations. (Figure 1a ). By analyzing the number of SARI available in the Epidemiological Surveillance of Influenza System (SIVEP-GRIPE), we found that the social distancing measures reduced the R(t) below to 1 with a more accurate confidence interval (Figure 1b) . The R0 was used in the SEIR model to forecast the ICU beds needed and the number of deaths .....
    Document: Underreporting and lack of confirmatory tests for COVID19 could directly affect these R(t) estimations. (Figure 1a ). By analyzing the number of SARI available in the Epidemiological Surveillance of Influenza System (SIVEP-GRIPE), we found that the social distancing measures reduced the R(t) below to 1 with a more accurate confidence interval (Figure 1b) . The R0 was used in the SEIR model to forecast the ICU beds needed and the number of deaths in a scenario without social distancing measures. The R(t) of SARI cases was used to forecast the scenario with social distancing measures.

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