Author: Mark Hernandez; Lauren E Milechin; Shakti K Davis; Rich DeLaura; Kajal T Claypool; Albert Swiston
Title: The Impact of Host-Based Early Warning on Disease Outbreaks Document date: 2020_3_8
ID: 8874c8jp_38
Snippet: We found that for all scenarios, a quarantine-on-alert policy coupled with the near-ideal early warning capability reduced quarantine needs with only a small increase in the number of additional infections. The cost of focusing on a high-specificity early detection system (i.e., a reduction in false alarms and thus quarantine costs) was an increase in additional infections relative to the near-ideal system. Conversely, a high-sensitivity system i.....
Document: We found that for all scenarios, a quarantine-on-alert policy coupled with the near-ideal early warning capability reduced quarantine needs with only a small increase in the number of additional infections. The cost of focusing on a high-specificity early detection system (i.e., a reduction in false alarms and thus quarantine costs) was an increase in additional infections relative to the near-ideal system. Conversely, a high-sensitivity system increased the percentage of the population in quarantine compared to both the ideal and high-specificity early detection system while reducing the number of additional infections to nearly the number seen by quarantining the entire population a priori.
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