The Epidemiological Implications of Incarceration Dynamics in Jails for Community, Corrections Officer, and Incarcerated Population Risks from COVID-19

Eric Lofgren; Kristian Lum; Aaron Horowitz; Brooke Madubuowu; Nina Fefferman

We represented the effects of several policy interventions or failures as changes to various 159 parameters in this model. We consider four categories of scenarios that could vary the 160 rate of spread: in addition to modeling shelter-in-place (reduced mixing) conditions in 161 the community, we modeled scenarios related to reductions in arrest rates, increases in 162 release rates, and changes to within-jail conditions. These scenarios are detailed below 163 in Table 3 . Most scenarios are additive; that is, all arrest reduction interventions 164 assume a baseline scenario of shelter-in-place in the community. The scenarios involving 165 faster release of individuals in jail all assume both shelter-in-place in the community, 166 and were each run under each of the "Arrest Reduction" scenarios to determine the 167 cumulative effects of arrest reduction, increased release rates, and community 168 shelter-in-place conditions. The mixing reduction scenario in the jail assumes 169 shelter-in-place in the community as well as a 25% reduction in arrests (equivalent to 170 the "Bail Eligible" Arrest Reduction scenario), as it is unlikely that jails will be able to 171 effectively reduce contact rates without reducing their average daily population. Finally, 172 in the reduced detection scenario, we assume shelter-in-place, but vary the likelihood 173 that serious cases of COVID-19 is caught and treated in a timely manner.