Author: Kirkegaard, J. B.; Sneppen, K.
Title: Variability of Individual Infectiousness Derived from Aggregate Statistics of COVID-19 Cord-id: o4zs06px Document date: 2021_1_15
ID: o4zs06px
Snippet: The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number $R$ directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor $k$ for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95 % confiden
Document: The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number $R$ directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor $k$ for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95 % confidence interval 0.08 -- 0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % to 87 % of all infections.
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