Determinants of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19; a prospective cohort study from Pakistan

Sarfaraz, Samreen; Shaikh, Quratulain; Saleem, Syed Ghazanfar; Rahim, Anum; Herekar, Fivzia Farooq; Junejo, Samina; Hussain, Aneela

A prospective cohort study was conducted at the Indus Hospital Karachi, Pakistan between March and June 2020 to estimate the in-hospital mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and its determinants. A total of 170 adult patients were enrolled and all-cause mortality was found to be 39% (67/170). Most non-survivors were above 60 years of age (64%) while gender distribution was quite similar in both groups (males: 77% vs 78%). Most (80.6%) non-survivors came with peripheral oxygen saturation less than 93% while 95% of them had critical disease on arrival. Use of non-invasive ventilation in emergency room was higher among non-survivors (56.7%) versus survivors (26.2%). Median Interleukin-6 levels were higher among non-survivors (78.6: IQR = 33.8–49.0) compared to survivors (21.8: IQR = 12.6–36.3). Most patients in the non-survivor group (86.6%) required invasive ventilator support during hospital stay compared to 7.8% in the survivors. The median duration of ICU stay was longer for non-survivors (9: IQR = 6–12) compared to survivors (5: IQR = 3–7) days. Univariable binary logistic regression showed that age above 60 years, oxygen saturation below 93%, Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio above 5, procalcitonin above 2ng/ml, unit increase in SOFA score and arterial lactate levels were associated with mortality. We also found that a unit decrease in Pao2/FiO2 ratio and serum albumin were associated with mortality in our patients. Multivariable regression showed that age above 60 years (aOR = 3.4: 95% CI = 1.6–6.9), peripheral oxygen saturation below 93% (aOR = 3.5:95% CI = 1.6–7.7) and serum pro-calcitonin above 2ng/ml (aOR = 4.8; 95% CI = 1.9–12.2) were associated with higher odds of mortality when adjusted by month of admission. Most common cause of death was multisystem organ failure in 35 (56.6%) non-survivors while 22 (35.5%) died due to respiratory failure. Larger prospective studies are needed to further strengthen these findings.