Author: Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds
Title: The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: g0pxqqga_12
Snippet: We found that, when implemented alone, none of these shorter-duration interventions were able to decrease the healthcare need to below available capacity. We estimated that neither school closures, social distancing, elderly shielding, or self-isolation alone would reduce R 0 enough to lead to a substantial decline in the total number of cases ( Fig. 2c ). In particular, school closures had a limited impact in our projections, despite our model a.....
Document: We found that, when implemented alone, none of these shorter-duration interventions were able to decrease the healthcare need to below available capacity. We estimated that neither school closures, social distancing, elderly shielding, or self-isolation alone would reduce R 0 enough to lead to a substantial decline in the total number of cases ( Fig. 2c ). In particular, school closures had a limited impact in our projections, despite our model accounting for substantial asymptomatic transmission among children. This contrasts with strategies aimed at suppressing the spread of pandemic influenza, for which school closures are often a key intervention [19] .
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