Author: Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds
Title: The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: g0pxqqga_16
Snippet: Our projections also showed that, when only a short intervention is deployed, rather than centring measures over the peak (as predicted in the absence of control measures), it was preferable to trigger the intervention later in order to minimise the total health burden ( Fig. 3b ). This is because the introduction of control measures will change the timing of the peak relative to the baseline scenario ( Fig. 3a ). In particular, the most effecti.....
Document: Our projections also showed that, when only a short intervention is deployed, rather than centring measures over the peak (as predicted in the absence of control measures), it was preferable to trigger the intervention later in order to minimise the total health burden ( Fig. 3b ). This is because the introduction of control measures will change the timing of the peak relative to the baseline scenario ( Fig. 3a ). In particular, the most effective timing for introduction of measures could involve a delay of as much as four weeks ( Fig. 3b ). However, optimally timing an intervention may be more difficult in practice than these scenarios suggest, since here they are run with complete knowledge of when the simulated peak would occur in the absence of any intervention.
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