Survival analysis of all critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to the main hospital in Mogadishu, Somalia, 30 March to 12 June 2020: what interventions are proving effective?

Ali, Mohamed M; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Ahmed, Abdulrazaq Yusuf; Bashir, Ahmed Mohamed; Mohamed, Abdulmunim; Abdi, Abdulkadir; Obtel, Majdouline

OBJECTIVESTo determine risk factors for death in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the main public sector hospital in Somalia and identify interventions contributing to improved clinical outcome in a low-resource and fragile setting. SETTINGMain public sector tertiary hospital in Mogadishu, Somalia. PARTICIPANTSAll 131 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to the main public tertiary hospital in Somalia between 30 March and 12 June 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESWe extracted demographic and clinical data from hospital records of all 131 COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital until their death or recovery. We used Kaplan-Meier statistics to estimate survival probabilities and the log-rank test to assess significant differences in survival between groups. We used the Cox proportional hazard model to estimate likelihood of death and assess the effect of risk factors on survival. RESULTSOf the 131 patients, 52 (40%) died in the hospital and 79 (60%) survived to discharge. The factors independently associated with increased risk of in-hospital death were: age [≥] 60 years - survival probability on day 21 in patients < 60 years was 0.789 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.658-0.874) compared with 0.339 (95% CI: 0.205-0.478) in patients [≥] 60 years; cardiovascular disease (survival probability 0.478 (95% CI: 0.332-0.610) in patients with cardiovascular disease compared with 0.719 (95% CI: 0.601-0.807) in patients without cardiovascular disease); and non-invasive ventilation on admission - patients who were not ventilated were significantly more likely to survive than those who were (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONOur study, which includes the largest cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to a single hospital in a sub-Saharan African country, confirms that underlying conditions and age are associated with increased risk of in-hospital death in patients with COVID-19. Our results show the advantage of medical oxygen over non-invasive ventilation in the treatment of patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms.