Author: Miguel Fudolig; Reka Howard
Title: The local stability of a modified multi-strain SIR model for emerging viral strains Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: cycc3fvl_70
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 19.20039198 doi: medRxiv preprint of the second strain, the proportion of the population infected by the original strain, i 1 , 368 and the proportion of the individuals who recovered from the original strain, r 1 , 369 decrease and go to zero asymptotically. The behavior of the second strain is similar to 370 that in Fig 5. This implies.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 19.20039198 doi: medRxiv preprint of the second strain, the proportion of the population infected by the original strain, i 1 , 368 and the proportion of the individuals who recovered from the original strain, r 1 , 369 decrease and go to zero asymptotically. The behavior of the second strain is similar to 370 that in Fig 5. This implies that the new emergent strain is much more infectious than 371 the older strain that the new strain infects more susceptible individuals compared to the 372 original strain. This causes the original strain to die down at steady state. 373 Fig 6. Surveillance data of the compartments for the new strain equilibrium where the system is originally in endemic equilibrium with Disease 1. The reproduction number of the original strain is R 0 = 5.71, while the reproduction number of the emergent strain is R 0 = 6.67. The vaccination rate used is 0.7.
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