The Effect of Social Distancing on the Early Spread of the Novel Coronavirus

Price, Gregory; van Holm, Eric

This article quantifies the effect of individual social distancing on the spread of the novel coronavirus. To do so, we use data on time spent by individuals on activities that would potentially expose them to crowds from the American Time Use Survey linked with state‐level data on positive tests from the COVID Tracking Project. We estimate count data specifications of observed COVID‐19 infections at the state level as a function of control demographic variables, and a measure of social distance that captures the amount of time individuals across the states spend in activities that potentially expose them to crowds. Parameter estimates reveal that the number of state‐level novel coronavirus infections decrease with respect to our measure of individual social distance. From a practical perspective, our parameter estimates suggest that if the typical individual in a U.S. state were to spend eight hours away from crowds completely, this would translate into approximately 240,000 fewer COVID‐19 infections across the states. Our results suggest that, at least in the United States, social distancing policies are effective in slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus.