The accelerated infectious disease risk in the Anthropocene: more outbreaks and wider global spread

Serge Morand; Bruno Andreas Walther

Increase in the number of outbreaks. Since the 1940s, the annual total outbreak number ( Fig. 1D ), the annual total disease number (Fig. 1E) , and the annual total country number ( Fig. 1F ) have increased exponentially. However, for the annual total disease number, this increase has slowed since the 1990s. While there is some annual up-and-down variation, the overall trends are well demonstrated by the smooth line regressions. Furthermore, around 2010, the trends for the three variables began a decrease or stagnation in the actual data, but not in the smooth line regressions. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.049866 doi: bioRxiv preprint 8 per capita of the year 2017 with individual countries as data points (Spearman rank test, rho 2 = 0.82, F1,154 = 14.75, P = 0.00018). The distribution of standard deviation values of centrality is approximately normally distributed, but with countries with high standard deviations concentrated in Asia, Europe, and the Americas (Fig. 5B) .