Predicting the Effect of European Air Traffic on Cirrus Cloud Cover

Duim, T. van der; Chekol, M.

The purpose of this study is to provide more insight into the role of anthropogenic cirrus formation through air traffic, by investigating the high-density European airspace over a period spanning several recent years including the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (2015-2020). Several data resources are combined, exploiting the strengths of each product within an all-encompassing framework on a high spatio-temporal resolution. Data from METEOSAT SEVIRI have been combined and validated with CALIPSO's CALIOP data to deduce temporal cirrus cloud cover variability over a rectangular region bound by (10 degrees W - 35 degrees N) and (40 degrees E - 60 degrees N). Cirrus clouds are correlated with air traffic. Meteorology was incorporated into the analysis as it is of major influence on the formation and lifetime of cirrus. Both a logistic regression model and a Random Forest model were built to assess cirrus cloud cover variability imposed by meteorology. The impact of aviation on cirrus cover in 1) super-saturated an 2) sub-saturated air have been evaluated separately. A description of all the datasets involved, including the main research methodology and main results, are presented.