Population perspective comparing COVID-19 to all and common causes of death in seven European countries

Olabi, B.; Bagaria, J.; Bhopal, S.; Curry, G.; Villarroel, N.; Bhopal, R.

Background: Mortality statistics on the COVID-19 pandemic have led to widespread concern and fear. To contextualise these data, we compared mortality related to COVID-19 with all and common causes of death, stratifying by age and sex. We also calculated deaths as a proportion of the population by age and sex. Methods: COVID-19 related mortality and population statistics from seven European countries were extracted: England and Wales, Italy, Germany, Spain, France, Portugal and Netherlands. Available data spanned 14-16 weeks since the first recorded deaths in each country, except Spain, where only comparable stratified data over an 8-week time period was available. The Global Burden of Disease database provided data on all deaths and those from pneumonia, cardiovascular disease combining ischaemic heart disease and stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer, road traffic accidents and dementia. Findings: Deaths related to COVID-19, while modest overall, varied considerably by age. Deaths as a percentage of all cause deaths during the time period under study ranged from <0.01% in children in Germany, Portugal and Netherlands, to as high as 41.65% for men aged over 80 years in England and Wales. The percentage of the population who died from COVID-19 was less than 0.2% in every age group under the age of 80. In each country, over the age of 80, these proportions were: England and Wales 1.27% males, 0.87% females; Italy 0.6% males, 0.38% females; Germany 0.13% males, 0.09% females; France 0.39% males, 0.2% females; Portugal 0.2% males, 0.15% females; and Netherlands 0.6% males, 0.4% females. Interpretation: Mortality rates from COVID-19 remains low including when compared to other common causes of death and will likely decline further while control measures are maintained. These data may help people contextualise their risk and policy makers in decision-making.