The Longevity-Frailty Hypothesis: Evidence from COVID-19 Death Rates in Europe

Sammy Zahran; Levi Altringer; Ashok Prasad

[ INSERT TABLE 1] Absent individual-level or age-specific death rates for all European countries, the age-gradient of COVID-19 death rates in Italy suggests that the share of elderly population in a country ought to be a good predictor of COVID-19 death rates cross-nationally. However, the COVID-19 death rate and the share of elderly population ≥ 65 are statistically uncorrelated (r = 0.163, p = 0.399). Taking the natural log of both variables still results in statistical independence (r = 0.104, p = 0.591). Even if one expands the definition of elderly share to persons ≥ 75 years of age, the relationship is statistically insignificant (r = 0.207, p = 0.282). Only at the share of population ≥ 85 years of age does the relationship to the COVID-19 death rate become moderately correlated and significant (r = 0.541, p = 0.003). However, with this last definition of elderly (≥ 85 years) we drift from the observed distribution of COVID-19 deaths (at least in the Italian example) and therefore risk loss of validity.