Mobility traces and spreading of COVID-19

Sebastian Alexander Muller; Michael Balmer; Andreas Neumann; Kai Nagel

The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101 //doi.org/10. /2020 Fig. 9 shows the impact of combining the containment strategies of preventing infections both at leisure and workplace activities. Compared to the single strategies it can clearly be seen that a combination of the two has a much stronger effect. The peak number of simultaneously infected persons can be reduced to about 970.000 cases when enforcing this strategy no later than day 20. This underlines the recommendations stated before that work and leisure activities should be reduced early enough. However, 970.000 simultaneous cases are still too many for our current hospital system to process, even though it is a very drastic measure. 4.6 Assuming no infections at work, at leisure activities, and in public transport Fig. 10 shows the effect of closing both work and leisure activities and also shutting down public transport. Compared to the section before, the maximum number of simultaneously infected persons can be reduced even more to approximately 880.000 persons when enforcing this strategy no later than day 20. As stated before, we do not recommend closing down public transport. However, this analysis shows that the population should reduce unnecessary trips where possible.