Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran

Ali Ahmadi; Majid Shirani; Fereydoon Rahmani

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037671 doi: medRxiv preprint epidemic curve should be drawn by rural, city, district, province, and other important sectors and be provided to the campus authorities in an updated dashboard format. Data should be carefully recorded and analyzed regarding the pathology, the time of onset of symptoms, natural course of the disease and the outcome of the disease to determine effective strategies to prevent and determine the necessity of intervention to control the spread of the disease at different levels. At all levels of the health care system (governmental and nongovernmental), interventional care, diagnostic and therapeutic interventions, whether compliant or non-compliant, should be conducted for all cases since the beginning of the interventions based on the time of onset of symptoms and type of diagnosis and recorded, and their relationship to outcomes should be analyzed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various diagnostic therapeutic approaches. Health care system staff should be empowered to record and train data, especially the use of virtual, remote, and web-based networks. This will certainly improve the quality of data recording. All epidemiological indicators that determine the epidemic pattern, including baseline R zero, attack rate, incubation period, index case, primary cases, secondary cases, and GIS mapping should be determined in provinces, cities, and across the entire country, and epidemic trends should be monitored. We suggested Access to the results of the analysis as well as data should be provided for researchers and experts on the basis of specific protocols available for this purpose in the world and Iran, and a thorough critique and creative theories and ideas should be elicited from all university training and research groups. The models used to predict the end of the epidemic and control it should be evaluated, as well. The results of our study are inconsistent with Zhuang brief report. That study reported the data were collected from the World Health Organization.