Selected article for: "intervention SIR model and SIR model"
Author: Knut M. Wittkowski
Title: The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies
  • Document date: 2020_3_31
    • ID: 2ytec133_38
    Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715 doi: medRxiv preprint The SIR model is flexible enough to reflect a "phased in" intervention, which starts with a period of lower intensity (higher R0) to allow people to adjust, before rolling in a more restrictive intervention (higher R0). The Fig 14a shows the intervention of Fig 13 starting with a week of reduced intensity.....
    Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715 doi: medRxiv preprint The SIR model is flexible enough to reflect a "phased in" intervention, which starts with a period of lower intensity (higher R0) to allow people to adjust, before rolling in a more restrictive intervention (higher R0). The Fig 14a shows the intervention of Fig 13 starting with a week of reduced intensity. Compared to Fig 13, reducing intensity during the period where herd immunity reduces the rebound, but -somewhat counterintuitively -also the number of deaths. Extending the duration of the intervention (almost) extinguish the disease (and further reduce number of deaths by 10%).

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