The focus and timing of COVID-19 pandemic control measures under healthcare resource constraints

Chen Wei; Zhengyang Wang; Zhichao Liang; Quanying Liu

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 16.20067611 doi: medRxiv preprint asymptomatic cases are converted to the symptomatic, at an average rate of 1/ as seen in Equation (2) (7) specifies an exponential decrease in isolation delay starting on January 10, 2020 ( 0 ), while the decrease in testing delay in Equation (8) follows the same exponential trend as that in isolation delay, reflecting a synchronization in resources utilized by either process (e.g. medical staff). The constraint of healthcare system capacity, an upper limit of , limits the combine beds occupied by i ( ) and c ( ) in Equation (3) and Equation (4) . The number of days a patient remains hospitalized until discharged are distributed uniformly amongst a 14-day time span centered at c , shown in Equation (5) . The exponential decay of ( ) in Equation (6) describes the joint effect of the NPI measures from January 23, 2020 ( 1 ) including traffic control, homeisolation, social distancing, disinfection and public use of personal protective equipment etc.