Age Pattern of Premature Mortality under varying scenarios of COVID-19 Infection in India

Mohanty, S. K.; Sahoo, U.; Mishra, U. S.; Dubey, M.

Background India is vulnerable to community infection of COVID-19 due to crowded and poor living condition, high density, slums in urban areas and poor health care system. The number of COVID-19 infection has crossed 120,000 with over 3500 deaths despite a prolonged period of lockdown and restrictions in public spaces. Given the likely scale and magnitude of this pandemic, this is a modest attempt to assess its impact on the age pattern of mortality under the varying scenarios. Data and Methods Data from the Sample Registration System (SRS), covid19india.org and country-specific data from worldmeter are used in the analysis. Descriptive statistics, case fatality ratio, case fatality ratio with 14 days delay, abridged life table, years of potential life lost (YPLL), disability-adjusted life years (DALY) are used. Results The case fatality ratio (CFR) with 14 days delay for India is at least twice higher (8.0) than CFR of 3.4. Considering 8% mortality rate rate and varying scenarios of community infection by 0.5%, 1% and 2%, India's life expectancy will reduce by 0.8, 1.5 and 3.0 years and potential life lost by 12.1 million, 24.3 million and 48.6 million years respectively. A community infection of 0.5% may result in DALY by 6.2 per 1000 population. Major share of PYLL and DALY is accounted for the working ages. Conclusion COVID-19 has a visible impact on mortality with loss of productive life years in working ages. The sustained effort at containing the transmission at each administrative unit is recommended to arrest mortality owing by the working ages. Key Words: COVID-19, life expectancy, mortality, premature, DALY, India