Author: Erida Gjini
Title: Modeling Covid-19 dynamics for real-time estimates and projections: an application to Albanian data Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: ela022bo_19
Snippet: The median estimate of the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) at the beginning of the outbreak is 5.45, 95%CI (4.15, 6.95), about double the estimates from early dynamics in the literature (2; 3). The median estimate of the efficacy of dynamic control measures, assuming they were effective 5-days after the first confirmed case (T in = 5) is 0.09, 95%CI (0.02,0.14). This implies that by the first week of control, transmission was reduced by about 30.....
Document: The median estimate of the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) at the beginning of the outbreak is 5.45, 95%CI (4.15, 6.95), about double the estimates from early dynamics in the literature (2; 3). The median estimate of the efficacy of dynamic control measures, assuming they were effective 5-days after the first confirmed case (T in = 5) is 0.09, 95%CI (0.02,0.14). This implies that by the first week of control, transmission was reduced by about 30%.
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