Selected article for: "real time and simple model"
Author: Erida Gjini
Title: Modeling Covid-19 dynamics for real-time estimates and projections: an application to Albanian data
  • Document date: 2020_3_23
    • ID: ela022bo_41
    Snippet: This is a simple model embedded in a Bayesian framework, to fit real-time data of early COVID-19 dynamics, estimate parameters and generate predictions, accounting for intrinsic uncertainty. The model is generic and can be applied to any setting. I show that it captures well the data from March 9 to March 28 in Albania, and suggests that the effects of control are already tangible in the dynamics. A dynamic control put in place almost immediately.....
    Document: This is a simple model embedded in a Bayesian framework, to fit real-time data of early COVID-19 dynamics, estimate parameters and generate predictions, accounting for intrinsic uncertainty. The model is generic and can be applied to any setting. I show that it captures well the data from March 9 to March 28 in Albania, and suggests that the effects of control are already tangible in the dynamics. A dynamic control put in place almost immediately after the detection of the first case, has had an effect of reducing the original transmission, already by 30% in the first week of implementation. The projections are based on maintaining control from the onset of intervention, T in , throughout the period simulated.

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • bayesian framework and control effect: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • bayesian framework and dynamic control: 1
    • bayesian framework and early dynamic: 1
    • bayesian framework and intrinsic uncertainty: 1
    • bayesian framework and real time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
    • bayesian framework and setting apply: 1
    • bayesian framework and simple model: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • case detection and control effect: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • case detection and control maintain: 1, 2, 3
    • case detection and real time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40
    • case detection and simple model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • control effect and dynamic control: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • control effect and parameter estimate: 1
    • control effect and real time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
    • control effect and setting apply: 1
    • control effect and simple model: 1, 2, 3
    • control maintain and intervention onset: 1
    • control maintain and real time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
    • dynamic control and early dynamic: 1, 2