Author: Omer Karin; Yinon M. Bar-On; Tomer Milo; Itay Katzir; Avi Mayo; Yael Korem; Boaz Dudovich; Amos J. Zehavi; Nadav Davidovich; Ron Milo; Uri Alon
Title: Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 5xfgmi2n_30
Snippet: , and . In the figures σE γI , dI /dt γI γI 2 2 − 2 1 2 = 2 1 − 2 2 I = I 1 + I 2 / γ R = β we used a worst-case assumption of no herd immunity, namely . Herd immunity S ≈ 1 further reduces case numbers. Case numbers are in arbitrary units, and can describe large or small outbreaks. The deterministic simulation describes a fully-mixed population. Population structure typically reduces overall outbreak peak size ( 23 ) compared to a fu.....
Document: , and . In the figures σE γI , dI /dt γI γI 2 2 − 2 1 2 = 2 1 − 2 2 I = I 1 + I 2 / γ R = β we used a worst-case assumption of no herd immunity, namely . Herd immunity S ≈ 1 further reduces case numbers. Case numbers are in arbitrary units, and can describe large or small outbreaks. The deterministic simulation describes a fully-mixed population. Population structure typically reduces overall outbreak peak size ( 23 ) compared to a fully mixed situation with the same mean transmission rate, but includes the possibility of high attack rates in certain sub-populations. For example, a stochastic simulation on a network shows a larger range of conditions for a cyclic strategy to work than in a deterministic model (compare Fig 4 and Fig S5) , Staggered cyclic strategy, SEIR-Erlang model: We model two groups, A and B, with a susceptible, exposed and infectious compartment for each group. The SEIR-Erlang model for group A is:
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- attack rate and deterministic model: 1, 2
- attack rate and herd immunity: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- attack rate and mean transmission rate: 1
- attack rate and network stochastic simulation: 1
- attack rate and peak size: 1
- attack rate and population structure: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- attack rate and reduce case: 1, 2, 3
- attack rate and small large outbreak: 1
- attack rate and stochastic simulation: 1, 2
- attack rate and transmission rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date