Author: ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart
Title: Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: fsjze3t2_59
Snippet: As of 30 March 2020, there were no reported cases in Hubei in the past week and the total number of cases and total number of deaths were 67801 and 3187, respectively. Based on our 15-days forecasting, the number of cases in Hubei was projected to be about 67994 and the number of deaths was projected to be about 3254. Thus, we estimate the fatality rate of the outbreak to be about 4.8% in Hubei. Our model gives about 6% relative error and we are .....
Document: As of 30 March 2020, there were no reported cases in Hubei in the past week and the total number of cases and total number of deaths were 67801 and 3187, respectively. Based on our 15-days forecasting, the number of cases in Hubei was projected to be about 67994 and the number of deaths was projected to be about 3254. Thus, we estimate the fatality rate of the outbreak to be about 4.8% in Hubei. Our model gives about 6% relative error and we are confident that using the model will be helpful for forecasting local outbreaks of the pandemic in other regions.
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