Selected article for: "accelerated rollout and acute respiratory syndrome"
Author: Davies, Nicholas G.; Abbott, Sam; Barnard, Rosanna C.; Jarvis, Christopher I.; Kucharski, Adam J.; Munday, James D.; Pearson, Carl A. B.; Russell, Timothy W.; Tully, Damien C.; Washburne, Alex D.; Wenseleers, Tom; Gimma, Amy; Waites, William; Wong, Kerry L. M.; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Silverman, Justin D.; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Keogh, Ruth; Eggo, Rosalind M.; Funk, Sebastian; Jit, Mark; Atkins, Katherine E.; Edmunds, W. John
Title: Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
  • Cord-id: t023li1a
  • Document date: 2021_4_9
    • ID: t023li1a
    Snippet: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resur
    Document: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

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