Author: Samuel Soubeyrand; Melina Ribaud; Virgile Baudrot; Denis Allard; Denys Pommeret; Lionel Roques
Title: The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: dh3cgd48_22
Snippet: In our approach, the quality of data is paramount, like in most approaches strongly relying on data. However, some technical choices underlying our method (in particular the smoothing of predictors and the over-dispersed distribution for the daily increments in the number of deaths) make our approach robust to some extent. For instance, Swedish data show a decrease in the number of recorded daily deaths each week-end, but its mortality trajectory.....
Document: In our approach, the quality of data is paramount, like in most approaches strongly relying on data. However, some technical choices underlying our method (in particular the smoothing of predictors and the over-dispersed distribution for the daily increments in the number of deaths) make our approach robust to some extent. For instance, Swedish data show a decrease in the number of recorded daily deaths each week-end, but its mortality trajectory is nonetheless relatively adequately forecast. Despite the relative robustness of our approach, its performance would be improved by grounded it on corrected data (e.g., we could re-allocate some deaths recorded on weekdays in Sweden to the preceding weekend, and we could correct French data anterior to April 1st, date before which deaths in nursing homes were not recorded). Correcting data would be particularly crucial for countries that may underestimate COVID-19-induced deaths. It must be however noted that our simple approach applied to raw data can be exploited to detect countries with extreme trajectories (i.e., very mild mortality dynamics), resulting either from bias in data or from particularly efficient ways of mitigating the COVID-19 wave. Identifying the former case can be beneficial to obtain a better assessment of COVID-19 sanitary impact in the country of interest. Identifying the latter case can be beneficial for other countries to improve their control strategies by taking as a model the strategy of the country with extreme trajectory.
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