Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity

Omer Karin; Yinon M. Bar-On; Tomer Milo; Itay Katzir; Avi Mayo; Yael Korem; Boaz Dudovich; Amos J. Zehavi; Nadav Davidovich; Ron Milo; Uri Alon

A custom simulator uses a stochastic SEIR process on a social network . The social network is small-world with with , mean degree C=16 and fraction of long-range 0 N = 1 4 connections . Timesteps are one day. In work days transmission occurs along edges, with /R p = 1 − R L W probability ). In lockdown days, the long range links of each node are inactivated (the /(C T q W = R W inf same links are inactivated every day), with remaining links signifying the household. Transitions between exposed, infectious and removed states are determined by Erlang (shape=2) distributed times determined for each node at the beginning of the simulation. : (a) φ=1,η=0.1 (b) φ=1.5,η=0.1 (c)