The proportion of deaths cases in confirmed patients of COVID-19 is still increasing for cumulative cases reported up to 14 April 2020

Thomas Scheuerl

The ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak starting in China [1] expanded rapidly over the globe and many countries respond to the spread of the disease by a lock-down to limit contacts between people. Many countries are heavily affected by the outbreak and there is a high deaths rate [2] . The deaths probability will be an important parameter guiding how long lock-down and social distancing are necessary. Countries economies are under pressure and for older adults, who are the most vulnerable group, social distancing is predicted to come with serious negative effects [3] , but obviously spread of the disease should be condemned as much as possible until the health system can cope with the disease. Here, I analyse the death proportion dynamics of COVID-19 infections since outbreak of the disease. I focus on the change of deaths probability over confirmed cases of a particular day and if this proportion changes over time. This indicates the probability of a fatal case for the current number of cases and reflects whether further increase can be expected, or if proportions have reached the maximum. The analysis reveals that at the current number of confirmed cases, the proportion of people dying is still increasing in most countries, indicating the situation may further worsen.