Author: ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart
Title: Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: fsjze3t2_60
Snippet: From existing COVID-19 data from Turkey and the dynamics of our model understood from the Hubei analysis, the outbreak in Turkey is expected to reach its peak between April 20 and April 26 depending on the number of individuals (amount of people) in quarantine and the number of COVID-19 tests carried out each day in Turkey. The daily number of tests given in Turkey is large when we compare to the rates of reported cases in Hubei. As we showed in .....
Document: From existing COVID-19 data from Turkey and the dynamics of our model understood from the Hubei analysis, the outbreak in Turkey is expected to reach its peak between April 20 and April 26 depending on the number of individuals (amount of people) in quarantine and the number of COVID-19 tests carried out each day in Turkey. The daily number of tests given in Turkey is large when we compare to the rates of reported cases in Hubei. As we showed in the sensitivity analysis, increasing the number of COVID-19 tests and the number of individuals in quarantine will significantly reduce the number of cases (and deaths). Based on our forecasting, the number of cases will be about 203,700 with the range 148,100 and 281,500, and the number of deaths will be about 8,269 with the range 6,005 and 11,430 depending on quarantine rate, s q and the rate of reported cases, i q in Turkey. Thus, in any cases that are given in Figure 9 and 10, the fatality rate of COVID-19 will be about 4.1% in Turkey.
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