Modeling layered non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2 in the United States with Corvid

Dennis L Chao; Assaf P Oron; Devabhaktuni Srikrishna; Michael Famulare

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint Figure 4 : The effect of testing delays on test-and-isolate strategies. We simulated test-and-isolate strategies in which ascertainment of cases took place immediately upon symptom onset (solid lines) or 5 days after symptom onset (dashed lines). The simulations with no testing delay (solid lines) are identical to those shown in Figure 1 : all NPIs start on day 30 (top panels) or 90 (bottom panels) of the epidemic, and schools are re-opened on day 180. Three different isolation strategies were modeled: home isolation, self isolation, and home isolation with family quarantine. 50% of symptomatic people were tested. The left plots show log-transformed numbers of newly symptomatic people per day per 100,000 population, and the right plots show cumulative % of the population symptomatic. Each curve represents one stochastic realization of the model. The days when workplace policies are in effect are shown as blue horizontal dotted lines near the x-axis and school closures as red lines.