Modeling layered non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2 in the United States with Corvid

Dennis L Chao; Assaf P Oron; Devabhaktuni Srikrishna; Michael Famulare

In simulated epidemics, a large proportion of infections occurred within households (Table 1) . School and workplaces contribute less but still comprise a significant share of transmission. The remaining infections come from the general community. For lower R 0 , schools may play a larger role in transmission. For high R 0 , the attack rate for all age groups is high, so the age distribution of cases flattens and adults (and settings with only adults) become more important. In the model, if an individual becomes infected with SARS-CoV-2, there is a high probability that other family members will become infected. We can measure the household secondary attack rates by infecting a random individual in the population with a non-transmissible pathogen (using the method used to compute R 0 as described in Section 4.2) and count the number of infections in that person's household. For R 0 =2.6, if an index case is a child, the household infection attack rate is 51% for children and 28% for adults ( Table 2 ). If an index case is an adult, the household infection attack rate is 22% for children and 32% for adults. 17 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.