Author: Julien Riou; Anthony Hauser; Michel J Counotte; Christian L Althaus
Title: Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020 Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: mrsya6wz_22
Snippet: The model accurately describes the early dynamics of transmission and mortality by age group during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in northern Italy from to 2 February to 3 March 2020 ( Figure 4) . The model predicts that a total number of 63,300 (95%CrI: 51,000-77,200) people were infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the area until 3 March 2020. Of these, an estimated 51,900 (95%CrI: 41,800-63,100) were symptomatic, 8.5 (95%CrI: 6.8-10.3) times more than the 6,.....
Document: The model accurately describes the early dynamics of transmission and mortality by age group during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in northern Italy from to 2 February to 3 March 2020 ( Figure 4) . The model predicts that a total number of 63,300 (95%CrI: 51,000-77,200) people were infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the area until 3 March 2020. Of these, an estimated 51,900 (95%CrI: 41,800-63,100) were symptomatic, 8.5 (95%CrI: 6.8-10.3) times more than the 6,117 reported cases during that period. The proportion of ascertained cases was estimated to be 1% in under 20 years old, rising to 62% (95%CrI: 58-67) in the 70-79 age group (it was assumed that ascertainment was 100% in the 80+ age group, S1 Text section 4).
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