Global epidemiology of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans, 1997 – 2015: a systematic review

Lai, Shengjie; Qin, Ying; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Ren, Xiang; Wardrop, Nicola A.; Gilbert, Marius; Tsang, Tim K.; Wu, Peng; Feng, Luzhao; Jiang, Hui; Peng, Zhibin; Zheng, Jiandong; Liao, Qiaohong; Li, Sa; Horby, Peter W.; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Gao, George F.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Yu, Hongjie

Avian influenza viruses A(H5N1) have caused a large number of typically severe human infections since the first human case was reported in 1997. However, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological analysis of global human cases of H5N1 from 1997-2015. Moreover, few studies have examined in detail the changing epidemiology of human H5N1 cases in Egypt, especially given the most recent outbreaks since November 2014 which have the highest number of cases ever reported globally over a similar period. Data on individual cases were collated from different sources using a systematic approach to describe the global epidemiology of 907 human H5N1 cases between May 1997 and April 2015. The number of affected countries rose between 2003 and 2008, with expansion from East and Southeast Asia, then to West Asia and Africa. Most cases (67.2%) occurred from December to March, and the overall case fatality risk was 53.5% (483/903) which varied across geographical regions. Although the incidence in Egypt has increased dramatically since November 2014, compared to the cases beforehand there were no significant differences in the fatality risk , history of exposure to poultry, history of human case contact, and time from onset to hospitalization in the recent cases.