Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic: II. Quarantine Measures and the Second Wave

Dimaschko, J.

Within the framework of a two-component model of the COVID-19 epidemic, taking into account the special role of superspreaders, we consider the impact of the recovery factor and quarantine measures on the course of the epidemic, as well as the possibility of a second wave of morbidity. It is assumed that there is no long-term immunity in asymptomatic superspreaders who have under- gone the infection, and the emergence of long-term immunity in those who have undergone severe illness. It is shown that, under these assumptions, the relaxation of quarantine measures leads to the resumption of virus circulation among asymptomatic superspreaders. Depending on the charac- teristics of the quarantine, its removal may or may not lead to a renewed wave of daily morbidity. A criterion for the occurrence and repeated wave of morbidity is proposed based on the analysis of the final phase of the first wave. Based on this criterion, the repeated wave of the epidemic is predicted in New Zealand. A natural explanation is given for the decrease in lethality among the infected against the background of an absolute increase in their number.