Would India Really Touch the Peak of SARS COVID 19 Cases or Deaths in Near Future?

Gupta, P. K.

Background: The Government, Health System and even an individual citizen of India is alarmed expecting the height of pandemic of SARS-COVID-19 in near future. Many experts worldwide predict it to happen in India between end of May and end of July. Objectives: The aim of this research was to find an answer that whether India would come across the looming conditions of SARS-COVID-19 in coming days given the prevailing circumstances so far. Methods: The proposed approach used fundamental concept of Statistics by fixing the standard reference to the number of daily new tests conducted by a country. We thus computed the percentage of daily new cases and daily new deaths, in using such references. The trends were studied using simple line chart. The theory of three sigma was also used to build the upper bound for daily new cases and deaths, specifically for India to see the extreme conditions. Results: The analysis was done using data from January to till May 18, 2020 for India, Italy, USA and UK. The trend of India was almost fix between ~2% to ~6% till May 18, 2020. On contrary, Italy, USA and UK were touched the Peak on March 29, 2020 (24.38%), April 26, 2020 (23.51%) and April 24, 2020 (24.91%), respectively and declining since then. Similar trends were also noted in daily new deaths, except Italy. Conclusions: The proposed new concept for fixing universal reference provides a consistent and coherent results. It is thus clear from observed data so far that India is not going to encounter the frightened conditions or peak, like, Italy, USA, and UK for pandemic SARS-COVID-19, given the existing conditions, excluding the current migration.