Universality and herd immunity threshold : Revisiting the SIR model for COVID-19

Chowdhury, Sourav; Roychowdhury, Suparna; Chaudhuri, Indranath

COVID-19 pandemic has been raging all around the world for almost a year now, as of November 1, 2020. In this paper, we try to analyze the variation of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries in the light of some modifications to the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. The SIR model was modified by taking time-dependent rate parameters. From this modified SIR model, the basic reproduction number, effective reproduction number, herd immunity, and herd immunity threshold are redefined. The re-outbreak of the COVID-19 is a real threat to various countries. We have used the above-mentioned quantities to find the reasons behind the re-outbreak of this disease. Also, the effectiveness of herd immunity to prevent an epidemic has been analyzed with respect to this model. We have also tried to show that there are certain universal aspects in the spread and containment of the disease in various countries for a short period of time. Finally, we have also analyzed the current pandemic situation in India and have attempted to discuss the possibilities in order to predict its future behaviour using our model.