Author: Maximilian Vierlboeck; Roshanak R Nilchiani; Christine M Edwards
Title: The Easter and Passover Blip in New York City Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 72v6qufw_45
Snippet: The figures resulting from the last scenario show that the effects are partially as to be expected based on Scenario 3 since the infection rate steadily rises with every day the increase persists and therefore the impact that the measures have when they are back in effect is also reduced. For example, for the infection rate on the first day after the increased period, the numbers are between 10% to 40% higher than they were in the respective runs.....
Document: The figures resulting from the last scenario show that the effects are partially as to be expected based on Scenario 3 since the infection rate steadily rises with every day the increase persists and therefore the impact that the measures have when they are back in effect is also reduced. For example, for the infection rate on the first day after the increased period, the numbers are between 10% to 40% higher than they were in the respective runs of Scenario 3. This means that each day the increase persists will have permanent effects on the infection rates even once the effective contact rate goes back down. This permanent influence can have extreme ripple effects for the hospitalization and fatality numbers as shown by Figures 12 and 13 below: the hospitalization numbers are between 8.9% to 34.9% higher than the respective runs of Scenario 3 and between 29% and 146% higher than the reference run; the fatality numbers are between 6.8% to 28.6% higher than the respective runs of Scenario 3 and between 21.4% and 106% higher than the reference run over 90 days.
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