Author: Chen Wei; Zhengyang Wang; Zhichao Liang; Quanying Liu
Title: The focus and timing of COVID-19 pandemic control measures under healthcare resource constraints Document date: 2020_4_19
ID: 5psqro9d_1
Snippet: fixing the average period of infectivity at 2.4 days, which based on current evidence 6 , was too low and likely resulted in an over-estimation of the transmission rate. The study further assuming a flat 0%/50%/75% drop in transmissibility following Wuhan city lockdown. Transmission models with more sophisticated assumptions have since been proposed 7, 8 , including ones with time-dependent control policies 9 or non-Markovian transmission dynamic.....
Document: fixing the average period of infectivity at 2.4 days, which based on current evidence 6 , was too low and likely resulted in an over-estimation of the transmission rate. The study further assuming a flat 0%/50%/75% drop in transmissibility following Wuhan city lockdown. Transmission models with more sophisticated assumptions have since been proposed 7, 8 , including ones with time-dependent control policies 9 or non-Markovian transmission dynamics 10 . But these studies rarely made use of data beyond the confirmed number of cases such as the number of suspected cases. Another key factor that shall not be neglected in modelling is the real-time healthcare system capacity. While some studies have considered its impact 11 , few have incorporated such a factor dynamically in their transmission models.
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