Selected article for: "growth period and stochastic model"
Author: Jingbo LIANG; Hsiang-Yu Yuan
Title: The impacts of diagnostic capability and prevention measures on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan
  • Document date: 2020_4_6
    • ID: 1cpli8kv_30
    Snippet: The spread of the Wuhan local epidemic followed an exponential growth before February 4, and a short decreasing period. This decreasing period was followed by a second high peak occurring on February 12. Our stochastic SEIQR model successfully reproduced the dynamics with two peaks ( Figure 3A) . Specifically, the rise of the second peak was mainly caused by improved diagnostic criteria with delayed case ascertainment 18 . The predicted hospital .....
    Document: The spread of the Wuhan local epidemic followed an exponential growth before February 4, and a short decreasing period. This decreasing period was followed by a second high peak occurring on February 12. Our stochastic SEIQR model successfully reproduced the dynamics with two peaks ( Figure 3A) . Specifically, the rise of the second peak was mainly caused by improved diagnostic criteria with delayed case ascertainment 18 . The predicted hospital cumulative numbers were higher than the documented cases until delayed cases being documented on February 12 ( Figure 3B ). The time from illness onset to quarantine was estimated to have a mean of 5.65 days (95% CI, 1.91 to 9.76), the mean incubation time was estimated to be 5.57 days (95% CI, 2.67 to 7.95), and the mean latent time was estimated to be 2.92 days (95% CI, 1.09 to 5.28) (Table1).

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